Industrialized countries could gain in production potential, developing countries may lose

Chennai/New Delhi - Climate change is likely to undermine food production in the developing world, while industrialized countries could gain in production potential, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said today in a speech at the M.S. Swaminathan Foundation Conference in Chennai, India.

"Crop yield potential is likely to increase at higher latitudes for global average temperature increases of up to 1 to 3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that," he said. "On the contrary, at lower latitudes, especially in the seasonally dry tropics, crop yield potential is likely to decline for even small global temperature rises, which would increase the risk of hunger."

Greater frequency of droughts and floods would affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes, Dr Diouf added.

"Rainfed agriculture in marginal areas in semi-arid and sub-humid regions is mostly at risk," he explained. "India could lose 125 million tons of its rainfed cereal production -- equivalent to 18 percent of its total production."

The impacts of climate change on forests and on forest dependent people are already evident in increased incidences of forest fires and outbreaks of forest pests and diseases. Climate change adaptation will be needed in a variety of ecosystems, including agro-ecosystems (crops, livestock and grasslands) forests and woodlands, inland waters and coastal and marine ecosystems, according to Diouf.

Using new biotechnologies

Science and technology must spearhead agricultural production in the next 30 years at a pace faster than the Green Revolution did during the past three decades, Dr Diouf asserted.

"Exploiting the new biotechnologies, including in particular in vitro culture, embryo transfer and the use of DNA markers, can supplement conventional breeding approaches, thus enhancing yield levels, increasing input use efficiency, reducing risk, and enhancing nutritional quality," he said.

But, he cautioned, most genetically modified (GM) crops being cultivated today were developed to be herbicide tolerant and resistant to pests. Development of GM crops with traits valuable for poor farmers, especially within the context of climate change -- such as resistance to drought, extreme temperatures, soil acidity and salinity -- is not yet a reality.

"I cannot sufficiently underline the need to also address the needs of resource poor farmers in rainfed areas and on marginal lands," said Diouf. "Ensuring that new biotechnologies help achieve this goal, in full awareness of biosafety, socio economic and ethical concerns associated with the use of some of these technologies remains a challenge for the entire scientific community."

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